RSS订阅 加入收藏  设为首页
当前位置:首页 > 大通彩票导航


时间:2018/1/27 19:00:01  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: ... n-rocket-used-icbm/Can Japan’s Epsilon rocket be used as an ICBM?日本的艾普斯龙火箭能被用作洲际弹道导弹吗?Japan's solid-fue... ... n-rocket-used-icbm/

Can Japan’s Epsilon rocket be used as an ICBM?

大通彩票导航:日本的艾普斯龙火箭能被用作洲际弹道导弹吗? Japan's solid-fuel rocket, Epsilon-3, launches at the Uchinoura Space Center in Kimotsuki, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. Photo: Kyodo via Reuters

ON January 17, Japan fired an earth observation satellite into orbit aboard an Epsilon rocket, the workhorse of the country’s civilian space program.


The Epsilon is a Japanese solid-fuel rocket designed to launch scientific satellites. It can place a 1.2 ton payload into low earth orbit.


John Pike, a space security expert, says the peaceful rocket has another possible use, however. He says it can be turned into a nuclear delivery vehicle, providing Japanese defense planners with a ready-made way to drop nuclear warheads on Chinese and North Korean cities.


“It would take Japan less than a year to do this,” Pike told Asia Times. “The Epsilon is a big, solid rocket. All they have to do is take the satellites off the front end and add the warheads.”


Pike argues this is because the interchangeability of satellite and nuclear warhead launch capability is a well-known fact. “We used to say during in the Cold War that the difference between a missile and a satellite launcher isn’t altitude, but attitude,” Pike told Asia Times.


Case in point: the US, China and the Soviet Union have all used intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to loft satellites into orbit. North Korea was only the latest to do so when it launched a satellite on February 7, 2016, in what was widely viewed as a front for a ballistic missile test.


It’s also been known for years that Japan can access ample fissile material from reactor-grade plutonium at its civilian nuclear plants to fashion nuclear warheads and bombs. North Korea, India, Pakistan and others have tapped the same method, using centrifuges and other equipment, to build their nuclear arsenals. Japan’s technological edge would allow it to convert spent nuclear fuel into weapons within months, according to most analysts.

多年来,人们还知道,日本可以从其民用核工厂的反应堆级钚中获取足够的裂变材料,用于制造核弹头和核弹。朝鲜、印度、巴基斯坦和其他国家使用同样的方法,利用离心机和其他设备(浓缩核原料)来打造他们的核武库。据多数分析人士表示,日本的技术优势将使其能够在几个月内yi 将乏燃料转化为核武器。

A nuclear power reactor typically produces 250-300 kilograms of plutonium annually, enough to produce 25-30 weapons. (Japan has 54 civilian nuclear reactors, although 43 are now offline due to safety concerns generated by the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.)


A debate on whether Japan should go nuclear because of perceived threats from North Korea and China has also gone public. And Prime Minister Shinzo Abe favors developing new weapons to defend the country in a shifting Asian security environment.


Nukes still a hot potato


But Abe still faces stiff opposition at home in revising the country’s pacifist constitution to develop offensive (as opposed to purely defensive) military weapons. Any move by Japan to perfect such capability might also draw a sharp military reaction from Beijing or Pyongyang.


Daniel C. Sneider, an associate director of research for Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research, says there’s “no chance” that Japan will develop nuclear weapons anytime soon. “Capability is not the same as reality,” the veteran former Japan correspondent told Asia Times. “Right now a clear majority of Japanese don’t even support constitutional revision. The only way Japan goes nuclear is if the US alliance disappears – and I don’t think even Trump can do that.”

斯坦福大学Walter H. Shorenstein亚太研究所的研究副主任丹尼尔·C.·斯奈德表示,日本“没有机会”在短期内发展核武器。“有能力与现实是不一样的”,这位资深的前日本记者告诉《亚洲时报》,“目前,绝大多数日本人甚至都不支持修宪。日本发展核武器的唯一途径是与美国盟友关系的消失——我认为连特朗普都无法做到这一点。

No technical obstacles


But beyond such challenges, Pike stresses there are no technical factors standing in the way of putting nuclear warheads on the Epsilon rocket and otherwise converting it into a serviceable ICBM. “The Japanese have tested re-entry materials” that can be used for nuclear warhead technology,” noted Pike, who runs the military intelligence website The only significant hurdle would be fabricating a nuclear warhead and its accompanying “dispenser” mechanism – something which Pike says Japan could do with ease. The defense analyst also believes Tokyo already has contingency plans for converting the Epsilon into a nuclear missile.


The Epsilon’s big plus as an ICBM is that it relies on solid fuel. Missiles with solid propellants can be preloaded, stored for long periods and launched on short notice. This compares with liquid-fuel rockets whose tanks must be filled with such volatile fuel and need considerable ground preparation before they can be fired.


Pike also notes that Epsilon rockets converted for military use don’t require sophisticated targeting. He predicts that if Japan develops ICBMs, they will be aimed at Chinese or North Korean cities. This won’t require precise targeting capability, as in the case when attacking hardened missile silos and other hardened military sites.


He adds that Japanese defense contractors would have scant trouble producing the modified satellite rockets as weapons. “I think they could be produced, at the very least, at the rate of one per month,” Pike said.


MIRVs too


Moreover, it would be relatively easy for Japan to transition from single nuclear warheads to Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) delivery. Pike says that’s because the satellite dispersal technology which allows rockets to send more than one satellite into orbit is the same one that allows separately targeted nuclear warheads to hit multiple targets on the ground.


Japan could also make its missiles tougher to hit in preemptive strikes by mounting them on railway cars. “Japan has a very dense rail network. Fixed launch sites are just targets,” Pike said, noting that China and other countries are mulling using high-speed trains as mobile missile launchers.


“The main challenge in this is time and money,” Pike said. “You have to collect all the technology and experts you need and bring it together at one time.”


所有信息均来自:百度一下 (大通彩票开奖记录)